Dear Colleagues and Copatriots


After many weeks of anxiety, uncertainty and difficult negotiations Greeks can now relax hoping that by this time in 2014 Greece will get rid of this massive debt.
However the question in every ones lips is: what happens after May 2014?
The imposed austerity measures alone would not be sufficient to pay out the debt.
Knowing very well the slow bureaucratic process in Greece, the very slow pace at which court cases and disputes are settled, lengthy building approvals which take years to resolve due to very complex procedures and the existing filtering mechanisms.

So, before we know, the three years will pass like a flash and very soon we will be in a similar situation if nothing is done NOW.

Come May 2014, the most likely scenario will be “roll over the principal and interest” for a short term at “higher interest rates as the finance markets will not trust us for longer term loans.

Therefore a great effort must be given to avoid this unwelcomed situation… It is imperative besides the austerity measures to apply effective risk management BEFORE we reach this unfortunate situation.

Some control mechanisms which must be established should include:

1) The streaming of management and administration process in order to improve traceability and accountability, speed up the decision making processes and provide better quality decisions based on well pre-defined milestones.

2) A serious investigation of financial markets and national economic activity to able to predict in advance the impacts of poor economic growth and the reaction of financial markets. Thus the next three years are most critical in building our “credibility “and the “national economy” because these two factors will be the most critical ones in managing future events. Unless we restore these in May 2014 Greece will be asked by the “Troika” to apply further stringent conditions on its people and of course there is a limit on how much pressure the public and the country can withstand. The Greek government must target opportunities and provide the necessary incentives for improving the economic activity in Greece, by creating a healthy business environment, attracting foreign investments, currently almost non existent, and at the some reduce unemployment. Lets hope that most of the bail out monies go to support this effort, otherwise our credibility will reduce even lower and most certainly lead to bankruptcy.

3) The establishment of a “preventive failure mechanism” for “early identification of the sources / indicators which
if these are left uncontrolled will lead us again to failure. Normally one investigates the cause(s) and corresponding effect(s) to understand and plan control countermeasures, however this activity comes after the resulting failures, it is very late as the harm is already done!
In the Greek economic failure situation, between cause(s) and effect(s) a “preventive buffer model” is needed to identify
as “early as possible” the various indicators at their “roots”, and apply control countermeasures as soon as possible before these become uncontrollable leading again to economy failure. Countermeasures may include the sacking of incompetent and corrupt civil servants replacing them with “independent” highly qualified ones who will be appointed to serve the public and NOT their political masters! It is important that key managers would be given well specified job descriptions and performance standards.

In my view unless we change our frozen and rigid approaches in getting things done immediately we will not be better off after three years.

I hope the resulting future events prove me wrong.

Louis Doukas