A Non-Profit Organization Registered in the US
with 38,000 Hellenes as members and 36 Hellenic
associations in the US and abroad
February 20, 2009
Member of HEC Executive Council
DETRACTORS of Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insist that his Justice and Development Party is really a Trojan horse for an Islamist agenda. As validation, they point to Erdogan's recent spat with Israeli President Shimon Peres at the Davos World Economic Forum and his support for Hamas.
Not only is it in Turkey's interest to restore ties to Israel, but Erdogan must also show the United States and Europe that he is a reliable partner by addressing their other issues of concern - such as normalizing Turkey's relations with Armenia and Cyprus.
I recently met representatives of the Turkish Caucus in the US Congress. They were stunned by Erdogan's description of Israeli policy in Gaza as a "crime against humanity." They were even more troubled by the hero's welcome he received upon returning from Davos to Istanbul. Thousands of his party faithful thronged the airport waving the green flags of Hamas.
Erdogan did not plan his confrontation with Peres in Davos. But he was quick to seek political gain from it. With local elections coming up on March 29, his support for Hamas has given his party a boost in polls. Heralding Hamas's democratic credentials plays well on the "Turkish street." It has also made Erdogan the darling of Damascus and Tehran.
This pro-Hamas rhetoric is a poison pill for Turkey's relations with the United States, and it could not come at a worse time. The Armenian Genocide Act will soon be introduced in the US Congress. With leaders in both chambers on-record supporting recognition of the Armenian Genocide, this year the bill is likely to pass.
Turkey's supporters on Capitol Hill - along with Jewish groups that support Ankara's rapprochement with Israel - have worked feverishly to defeat previous resolutions. Turkish parliamentarians met last week with their typically steadfast allies. But after Davos, they turned a cold shoulder.
If the resolution is adopted, Turkish officials will protest vehemently. Ankara may even go so far as to block US access to Incirlik Air Force Base in southeast Turkey. Incirlik has been a base for US war planes since the first Gulf War. Today it is critical to supplying troops in Afghanistan and redeploying forces from Iraq.
Closing Incirlik would cause a major crisis in US-Turkish relations. To be sure, nobody wants this to happen. The Obama administration is keenly aware of Turkey's strategic importance. It knows that Turkey is a valued NATO ally and partner in the fight against violent extremist groups. Turkish troops are deployed alongside US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Turkey plays a moderating role in Central Asia and is the terminus for energy supplies from the Caspian Sea to western markets.
But while Turkey is an indispensable ally, the onus for avoiding a diplomatic train wreck rests with Erdogan. He can preempt a crisis by initiating normalized diplomatic relations and opening the border between Turkey and Armenia. There is no linkage between normalizing relations and a decision to recognize the Armenian Genocide. However, Turkey's conciliatory gesture would not go unnoticed in Washington. Nor would its efforts to improve increasingly strained relations with the EU.
If Erdogan wants to avert a showdown with Brussels, he must also do more to resolve the situation in Cyprus. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974, and the island remains divided today. The EU will evaluate Turkey's prospects for membership at year's end. While Brussels is not likely to formally suspend negotiations, it will decide not to expand negotiations absent progress in UN-mediated talks to reunify the island.
Opening Turkish ports to Cypriot ships would increase pressure on Greek Cypriots to negotiate in greater earnest. It would also take Turkey off the hook when it comes to parceling out blame in case reunification talks flounder.
If Erdogan wants to restore his reputation as a statesman and a reliable partner of the West, Turkey must repair its ties with Israel, normalize relations with Armenia, and welcome ships from Cyprus. Becoming an advocate for Hamas is a mistake. Turkey's future lies with the West. The Islamist street leads away from Europe to the Middle East.
David L. Phillips is a visiting scholar at Columbia University and director of the Turkey Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States.